Sunday, February 18, 2007

Dow Jones dream run continues

The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached an all-time high marking a record for the third day in a row, as Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke painted a broadly optimistic picture of the economy. The 30-stock index has risen seven straight months - the longest winning streak since 1995 - and has gained 2.4% in 2007. It closed at 12,767.57 this Friday, basking in the optimism generated by Bernanke's testimony and positive data on wholesale prices, while shrugging off another set of data that showed a continued slowdown in the housing market.

The Fed Chairman sounded less hawkish in his semi-annual congressional testimony than expected, spurring expectations that interets rates will remain on hold and will be cut later this year. He assessed that there were some indications that inflation pressures were beginning to diminish. Since there was much noise in monthly data, it may be some time before the Fed could be confident that underlying inflation was moderating as anticipated. He noted that core inflation rate remained somewhat elevated. However, if activity expanded over the next year or so at a moderate pace as anticipated by the FOMC, pressures on both labour and product markets should ease modestly. Consumer spending has been the "mainstay" of growth, and the worst housing slump in more than a decade won't have a significant effect on other parts of the economy, Bernanke said.

Reflecting anticipation of lower rates, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note has fallen to 4.69 percent.

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