Thursday, November 16, 2006

US FOMC minutes hawkish again, inflation eases, Japan rates untouched

US Fed officials maintain a hawkish tone on inflation in the minutes of the last month’s meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee, which decides on interest rates on monetary policy actions, had decided to keep interest rates on hold at its October 24-25 meeting.

This marks a pause for the third time in a row. US interest rates have risen over the past two years as the world's largest economy has recovered and price growth has picked up. The US central bank has kept interest rates steady at 5.25% since August, and is expected to maintain its current stance when it meets next month.

According to the minutes released Wednesday, the Fed noted that reducing inflation to counter expectations of higher prices was its 'greatest concern' and worried that inflation might not recede as hoped and an inflationary psychology could set in, making its job tougher. It assessed that core inflation was still uncomfortably high and that a tight labour market could lead to wage pressures. However, Fed officials also observed that high profit margins may be able to absorb some part of the higherlabour costs. On the housing market, the minutes said that ongoing adjustment was likely to depress real activity in the near term, but thatthis effect was expected to wane gradually.

Meanwhile, consumer prices fell in October for the second month in a row, on the back of cheaper oil. The reading will offer some comfort to the policy-makers when they meet next month. The Labor Department said that prices fell by 0.5% in October, more than many analysts had forecast. The annual inflation rate was 1.3%.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) voted to keep policy rates steady, as widely expected. Japanese GDP grew 2% annualised for the quarter ended September, twice thatexpected, but the data did not provide sufficient fuel for the BoJ to act this time around.

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